Today, I commented on an article on Politico about Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, who is running, or should I say “sputtering,” in her quest for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in Texas. The article mentioned her buying Super Bowl air time to run an advertisement attacking incumbent governor Rick Perry. It was a case of the “Kay Kettle” calling the “Perry Pot” black, while the “other” Republican candidate, Debra Medina, was ignoring this GOP infighting, as her grass roots campaign was quietly building up a momentum that spilled all over the national scene today.
[Credit for this cartoon goes to: Dick Locher, Tribune Media Services]
Hutchison is "blowing money in the wind" as she attempts to close the double-digit gap between herself and incumbent governor, Rick Perry, after leading him by double digits early in the campaign. She had best worry about stopping the Medina Liberty Express which is barreling down on her.
Debra Medina, the grass roots, citizen candidate, whose poll results have "octupled" since September 2009, when she registered 3% support from likely Republican primary voters, to the most recent 8-point jump in her poll figures to 24%. According to Public Policy Polling, she now trails Hutchison, whose support lost one point to 28%, by less than the margin of error of the poll, which was nearly 5%. She is currently only 15 points behind Governor Perry, whose numbers fell from 44% ten days ago to 39% currently.
Thus, Medina may already be, statistically speaking, in a position to challenge Perry in a runoff election, leaving Hutchison with an excuse to pack up and head back to Washington before the outcome is clear. This is especially likely, since polling typically samples likely Republican voters. This leaves out of consideration the large number of Independents, who represent over 40% of the American electorate, and who in Texas are very unhappy with the Governor on many fronts. Supporting this possibility is the fact that "Indy Texans" just gave Debra Medina their endorsement, which required support from 60% of its membership.
I have published an analysis of Medina's political style here
[Link not embedded in original].
So, while Kay and Rick were battling it out in the kitchen, Debra was seen all over the state speaking impromptu without benefit of a teleprompter, crib notes on her palm, or millions of dollars of television advertising. The question that remains is: What happens if Hutchison does drop out early to save face and retain her senate seat despite her promise to resign win or lose? Where will her votes go? She tends to attract moderates and some Independents. My guess is that they will split with the majority going to Medina. Then, if one factors in the Independents who are recently endorsed Medina, one has a very interesting race developing for a runoff.
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